Forex Economic Calendar Monday 14.1.2008

Monday 14.1.2008; GMT +1:00 hour

		Actual	Forecast	Previous
10:30	Core PPI Output y/y	2.5	2.3	2.2
10:00	PPI Output y/y	5	4.7	4.5
10:30	Core PPI Output m/m	0.4	0.2	0.1
10:30	PPI Output m/m	0.5	0.4	0.5
10:30	PPI Input y/y	11.3	10.5	10.3
10:30	PPI Input m/m	0.5	0.5	1.7
11:00	Industrial Production m/m	-0.7	-0.7	0.4
11:00	Industrial Production y/y	2.7	2.7	3.8
14:30	New Motor Vehicle Sales m/m	-2.9	-1	-1.4
16:30	BOC Business Outlook Survey

Forex Economic Calendar Wednesday 9.1.2008

Wednesday 9.1.2008; GMT +1:00 hour

		Actual	Forecast	Previous
01:30	Retail Sales m/m	0.8	0.5	0.2
08:00	Retail Sales y/y	-3.2	-1.5	-0.6
08:00	Retail Sales m/m	1.3	1.1	-2.3
08:00	Trade Balance	19.3	17.5	18.7
08:45	Trade Balance	-4.8	-3.6	-3.6
10:00	Retail Sales y/y	7.5		6.6
10:00	Retail Sales m/m	1		-0.3
11:00	GDP y/y	2.7	2.7	2.7
11:00	GDP q/q	0.8	0.7	0.7
12:00	Industrial Production m/m	-0.9	0.5	-0.3
14:15	Housing Starts m/m	188	225	228.5
16:30	Crude Oil Inventories	-6736	-2250	-3299

Forex Economic Calendar Tuesday 8.1.2008

Tuesday 8.1.2008; GMT +1:00 hour

		Actual	Forecast	Previous
01:30	Building approvals m/m	8.9	0.0	-2.8
11:00	Retail Sales y/y	-1.4		0.2
11:00	Retail Sales m/m	-0.5	0.4	-0.7
12:00	Factory Orders m/m	3.4	-1.6	4
12:00	Factory Orders y/y	13.6		14
16:00	Pending Home Sales m/m		-0.3	0.6

Russian economy to slow down in 2008

Russian economy is revealing a signs of overheating and in 2008 is expected to slow down. Economists claim that Ruble may continue to reinforce because of the high inflation rise. Growth of the gross domestic product (GDP) in Russia slows in 2008 at 6.7% (previous 7.6%) and the government calculate upon rate at the level of 6.6%. Ruble should strengthen against the Dollar/Euro basket up to 1.4%.
"Russian economy has every sings of overheating, which is carrying rapid slow down risk in future development", said Alexander Morozov from HSBC. Main risks for the russian economy are global loan crisis, world's economy deceleration and the potential price correction for the crude oil.
Government's principal aim in the last year was economy diversification, within the scope of filling it, created many institutions supporting the growth. These will lead away the capital to the non-energetic sectors. According to the president Vladimir Putin, government should focus on reducing the inflation rate as Moscow nearly missed its goal last year. It is expected to reach 12% for 2007, what is 4% more as primarily intended government's goal. In the annual report, Central Bank of Russia provided clear aim for the inflation rate to be 6% - 7%. Vice-president Alexej Uljukajev added that market should prepare for the higher volatile exchange rate for Ruble. What is more, Central Bank allowed revalorization of the Ruble last year against Dollar and Euro to soften the inflation rise and this trend will continue for the first months of the new year.

Forex Economic Calendar Monday 7.1.2008

Monday 7.1.2008; GMT +1:00 hour

		Actual	Forecast	Previous
00:55	Monetary Base y/y			1
07:45	Unemployment rate	2.8	2.8	2.7
11:00	Unemployment rate	7.2	7.2	7.2
11:00	PPI y/y	4.1	3.9	3.3
11:00	PPI m/m	0.8	0.7	0.6
11:00	Consumer Confidence	-9	-9	-8

Japan and India $6 billion swap deal

Japan and India agreed on $6 billion currency swap deal to prevent possible future financial crisis. In Naí Dillí, ministers from both countries confirmed the scope of the operation and the swap date to be this spring. This operation make India possible in time of lack of liquidity to draw from japan foreign exchange reserves to rule the pressure, which could occur with selling the India Rupia. India will be able to change its own Rupia in Japan for $3 billion and the same price for Japan in India's, if needed. The main agreement on swap entered both representatives in august last year. At that time, there was still an open topic about the volume of transaction and the date, when the deal will take effect.

Nukaga and Chidambaram also agreed they will meet each other twice a year to review macro economical conditions in their countries.

Single trader behind $100 a barrel oil record price

The New York Mercantile Exchange confirmed that US crude oil futures traded just once in triple figures. One floor trader, seeking bragging rights and a minute of fame, bought 1,000 barrels (at $100), the smallest amount permitted, and sold it immediately for $99.40 at a $600 loss. The man behind the record rise in oil prices to $100 a barrel was a lone trader, seeking bragging rights and a minute of fame, market watchers say. A single trader bid up the price by buying a modest lot and then sold it immediately at a loss, they claim. The New York Mercantile Exchange said that US crude oil futures traded just once in triple figures on Wednesday. Some analysts questioned the validity of the trade, though their concerns faded as oil set a record on Thursday. New York light sweet crude climbed to a new high of $100.05 a barrel on Thursday.

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Forex Economic Calendar Thursday 3.1.2008

Thursday 3.1.2008; GMT +1:00 hour

		Actual	Forecast	Previous
09:55	Unemployment Rate	8.4	8.5	8.6
10:00	Unemployment Change	-57	-35	-53
10:30	M3 Money Supply y/y	12.3	12.2	12.3
10:30	Constructor PMI	56.0	53.5	54.3
14:15	ADP Nonfarm Employment Change	40	47.5	189
16:00	Factory Orders m/m	1.5	1.2	0.5
16:30	Crude Oil Inventories	-4056	-1500	-3299

Third Fed Rate Cut Expected

Faced with a spreading mortgage crisis, the Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates for a third time and hint that even more rate cuts could be forthcoming.

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USD weaker, crude oil and gold higher

Crude Oil at $100/bbl. Gold above $850/oz. EURUSD above 1.47.

USD continues in weakening after weak US data with EURUSD near 3 weeks high at 1.4720.
Crude and spot gold are at new record highs. Crude February contract reached $100 a barrel and spot gold trades above $860.

Introducing the "strong bolivar" in Venezuela

On the first day of the new year, a new currency dubbed the strong bolivar was introduced in Venezuela. The result of the government's decision to valorize the old currency by crossing the last three zeroes, due to high inflation, which old currency was losing a lot of its value.

The country leader Hugo Chávez is trying to make easier financial transactions and payments for every citizen of the country in everyday system of payments and strengthen the people's confidence in money, which was destroyed by the inflation in the last few years. The new value of currency has to bind the rise in the prices and energize the national economy.
Bolivar was depreciated mainly after all president's efforts, which country has from export of the crude oil, to realize the social programs. President gained support by the poor citizens and amount incurred, which contributed to the rise of the national economy by 8.4% in the year 2007.
Central Bank before the monetary reform was crusading for the motto: Strong economy, strong Bolivar, strong country. Officially the exchange rate was established at 2.15 Bolivar for 1 US Dollar, but at the black market Bolivar was found 5.60 for 1 US Dollar. Paper money with the highest value is 100 Bolivars.

Last year the rate of inflation in Venezuela was 20% and the consumer prices were the highest in Latin America.

Forex Economic Calendar Wednesday 2.1.2008

Wednesday 2.1.2008; GMT +1:00 hour

		Actual	Forecast	Previous
09:55	Manufacturing PMI	53.6	53.3	53.7
10:00	Manufacturing PMI	52.6	52.5	52.5
10:30	Manufacturing PMI	52.9	53.9	54.4
16:00	ISM Manufacturing Prices	47.7	64	67.5
16:00	ISM Manufacturing Index	68.0	50.5	50.8
16:00	Construction Spending m/m	0.1%	-0.4	-0.8
20:00	FOMC Meeting Minutes