Technical FX

EURUSD 1.4311 base and the resistance at 1.4785.
USDJPY correction back to 111.82.
GBPUSD beyond 1.9986 then move for 2.0228 .
USDCHF loss of 1.1479 put 1.1236 ahead of 1.1170.

One quick...

GBPUSD
When was it: 31.12. (Monday)
Position: Sell at 2.0050 & Sell at 2.0055
S/L: none (speculation)
T/P: none (speculation)
Status: Closed at 2.024

Expecting price to go back at 2.0050

EURUSD after midnight (update)

EURUSD
When was it: 28.12. (Friday)
Position: Sell at 1.4609
S/L: 1.4640 (will be changed)
T/P: 1.4570 (or good till cancelled)
Status: Closed (S/L hit)

Well, after reaching the top at 1.4639 (resistance at 1.4648) I decided to open a bearish position at 1.4609.


Possible to reach 1.4688 or even 1.4727 which is a important level
Position: Sell at 1.4667
S/L: none
T/P: none
Status: Closed at 1.4712

Recent high reached at 1.4714, holding the position.
Update: positions closed despite a weak downtrend evaluation

USD, New Home Sales (update)

GBPUSD

When was it: 28.12. (Friday)
Position: Sell at 1.9922 & Sell at 1.9937
S/L: none (experimental position)
T/P: none (experimental position)
Status: Closed at 2.040

Risky to open a position right before the New Home Sales will be announced.
Update: position closed

New Home Sales: 647K

EURUSD

When was it: 28.12. (Friday)
Position: Sell at 1.4710
S/L: none (experimental position)
T/P: none (experimental position)
Status: Closed at 1.4705

We will see how the 1.4727 level is stong.
Update: speculations

ECB will increase interest rates in case of next inflation rise

European central bank (ECB) won't be indecisive in increasing the interest rates to prevent emphatic acceleration of inflation. The member of the ECB Executive board Jürgen Stark denied, that bank is facing a dilemma, wheter to suppress the inflation pressure or to support the peak season, which was muted by a turbulent motion at the financial markets. In addition, the ECB's main goal is to ensure the price stability. He insinuated that the ECB cut out a reduction of the interest rates in any foreseeable future.

ECB as the only one from the important banks within Europe and USA didn't draw the line at reducing the interest rates even after the turbulent motion at the financial markets, which caused mortgage crisis in USA. The main interest rate within the euro area remains at 4%. According to Stark, it will last a few months or a quarters to calm down the markets. He added that the new balance is possible only after the banks will announce every losses in connection with the risk investments.

Despite the idea of suppressing the inflation pressure, the rate of increasing the consumer prices reached the 6.5-year maximum 3,1%. Stark claims during the year 2008 the inflation begins to decrease towards the 2% after which ECB guarantee the price stability. The leading risk threatening a scenario like this, are increasing prices of commodities.

Economic expectations

Two more rate cuts are expected from the Fed in the first quarter of 2008, which brings the fed funds rate to 3.75%. 150bps. It should help offset the credit tightening and again support the sentiment.

The European Central Bank is concerned about inflation, it is expected left its key rate at 4.0% in the future.

What to watch

Friday 28.12.2007

USD:
3:45pm the Chicago Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) previous: 52.9 ; forecast: 52.0
4:00pm New Home Sales previous: 728K ; forecast: 718K

Monday 31.1.2007

USD:
3:00pm Existing Home Sale previous: 4.97M ; forecast: 4.92M

Note that the time is GMT+1

Symbol: EURUSD

When was it: 21.12. (Friday)
Position: Buy at 1.4365
S/L: none
T/P: none
(lets see what will happen)
Status: Open

Yes, the first.

Here at this blog you can find my recent foreign exchange (forex) trades and some trades which according to the situation I am going to open. I mainly focus at the EUR/USD pair using strategy with (triple) moving averages, experimental fractal table and modified bollinger bands. You can like them, but you don't have to. The aim is to share.

My platform is MetaTrader 4 and I am using it with the candlesticks. I am not using any paid FX forecasts or trading signals, I trust only myself and my opinion is final.

Note that all the screenshots are only for illustration.